Australia’s most famous historian on a crucial subject; a classic work updated for our times.

It was in 1973 that Geoffrey Blainey revealed his vital discovery about wars between nations. After studying more than 200 years of conflict, he discovered a surprising fact. Those national leaders who made the decision whether or not to wage war against one another usually held contradictory thoughts. Each expected to defeat its enemy, but obviously that is an impossible outcome. In other international wars, one nation had expected to win but the rival nation at least expected to avoid defeat. His study of recent international wars in Ukraine and the Middle East supports this theory.

He also reaches the conclusion that a theory of war is closely related to the causes of peace. He continues to refute the widely-held theories that deep rivalries on their own are the major cause of wars. He points out that the most dangerous rivalry in world history – the rivalry between the United States and communist Russia since 1945 – has so far not turned into a mighty war. The so-called Cold War was not a real war.

This bracing, clear-eyed survey is an essential guide to understanding our current fraught moment, seeing beyond the daily news cycle to deeper truths about the way the modern world works.

‘This book must be regarded as one of the most original ever written by an Australian historian.’ Professor L. C. F. Turner, Royal Military College, Australia

‘A fresh view, firmly grounded in actual experience, full of new and valuable insights, free of dogma and prejudice and, as a bonus, beautifully written.’ Professor S. E. Ambrose, The Washington Post

‘[A] pathbreaking study.’ Matt Pottinger, The Boiling Moat